output
is at the very high end of scenarios outlined by the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and could
translate into a global temperature rise of more than
11degrees Fahrenheit by the end of the century, according
to the panel's estimates.
"In
a sense, it's a reality check," said Corinne Le
Quéré, a professor at the School of Environmental
Sciences at the University of East Anglia and a researcher
with the British Antarctic Survey. "This is an
extremely large number. The emissions are increasing at a
rate that's faster than what the IPCC has used."
The
new statistics also underscore the growing contribution to
the world's "carbon budget" from rapidly
industrializing countries such as China, India and Brazil.
Developing nations have roughly doubled their carbon
output in less than two decades and now account for
slightly more than half of total emissions, according to
the new figures, up from about a third in 1990. By
contrast, total carbon emissions from industrialized
nations are only slightly higher than in 1990.
"What's
happening is the major developed countries' plans are
converging for emissions growth that will stop and be able
to come down significantly," said James L.
Connaughton, who chairs the White House Council on
Environmental Quality. "But that's being completely
overtaken now by the increasing greenhouse gas emissions
in developing counties. It underscores the need for a
broader and more aggressive effort by the major economies
to come together."
It
is unclear how much industrialized countries will be able
to reduce their carbon output in the years to come,
regardless of whether developing nations seek to restrain
their greenhouse gas emissions. The federal government
predicts that U.S. fossil fuel consumption will increase,
not decrease. Japan, Canada and several other countries
that committed to reducing their carbon emissions under
the 1997 Kyoto Protocol have fallen far behind in meeting
their targets.
Moreover,
new scientific research suggests Earth is already destined
for a greater worldwide temperature rise than previously
predicted. Last month, two scientists from the Scripps
Institution of Oceanography and the University of
California at San Diego published research showing that
even if humans stopped generating greenhouse gases
immediately, the world's average temperature would
"most likely" increase by 4.3 degrees Fahrenheit
by the end of this century. Writing in the journal
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, they
based their calculations on the fact that new air-quality
measures worldwide are reducing the amount of fine
particles, or aerosols, in the atmosphere and diminishing
their cooling effect.
The
IPCC has warned that an increase of between 3.2 and 9.7
degrees Fahrenheit could trigger massive environmental
changes, including major melting of the Greenland ice
sheet, the Himalayan-Tibetan glaciers and summer sea ice
in the Arctic. The prediction that current emissions put
the planet on track for a temperature rise of more than 11
degrees Fahrenheit, Le Quéré said, means the world could
face a dangerous rise in sea level as well as other
drastic changes.
Richard
Moss, vice president and managing director for climate
change at the World Wildlife Fund, said the new carbon
figures and research show that "we're already locked
into more warming than we thought."
"We
should be worried, really worried," Moss said.
"This is happening in the context of trying to reduce
emissions."
The
new data also show that forests and oceans, which
naturally take up much of the carbon dioxide humans emit,
are having less impact. These "natural sinks"
have absorbed 54 percent of carbon dioxide emissions since
2000, a drop of 3 percent compared with the period between
1959 and 2000.
Connaughton
argued that the Bush administration's "major
economies" meetings, a series of talks among both
developed and rapidly industrializing nations, have moved
the world closer toward achieving significant cuts in
greenhouse gases because the group is developing a common
measurement system for emissions and is exploring how
different industrial sectors can commit to worldwide
reductions.
"We
are unquestionably moving toward each other," he said
of the industrialized and developing countries, "but
there's a ways to go."
But
Moss, who characterized the latest round of negotiations
as "a lot of talk but not much action," said the
administration cannot expect emerging economies to
constrain their carbon emissions when the United States
has yet to adopt binding targets for cutting its
greenhouse gases. He noted that since 1990, the United
States has released about 30 gigatons of carbon into the
atmosphere, compared with China's seven gigatons and
India's one.
"We
really do have to start showing some leadership and start
doing some changes ourselves," he said. "If we
did that, China and India, which are developing rapidly,
would be willing to come along."
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